Are Israel and the U.S. Caught In A Quagmire?
1 January 2024 by Larry Johnson
We are closing in on the 3 month anniversary since Hamas launched the October 7 attack on Israeli military positions and kibbutzim that bordered the Gaza strip and Israel is no closer to destroying Hamas or freeing the hostages snatched by Hamas. Meanwhile, the United States has ordered the USS Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group to head home after patrolling the Red Sea and flexing sea-muscle in an effort to intimidate Yemen. In short, both Israel and the United States are admitting that pure military power cannot change the situation in Gaza or the Red Sea.
Let’s start with the evidence that Israel is starting to realize that it has bitten off more than it could chew and that Hamas remains largely intact:
The Israeli military said on Monday that it would begin withdrawing several thousand troops from the Gaza Strip at least temporarily, in what was the most significant publicly announced reduction since the war with Hamas began.
The military cited a growing toll on the Israeli economy after nearly three months of wartime mobilization with little end in sight to the fighting. Israel had been considering scaling back its operations, and the United States has been prodding it to do so more quickly as the death toll and privation in Gaza rose. . . .
Reservists from at least two brigades will be sent home this week, the Israeli military said in a statement, and three brigades will be taken back for “scheduled” training.
The economic toll the military mis-adventure in Gaza is exacting on Israel is real, but that is not the primary reason for pulling out several brigades — Israeli forces are suffering more casualties, both in terms of losses of personnel and equipment, than the Government of Bibi Netanyahu has reported to the Israeli public. As many of us predicted at the outset Israel’s decision to try to bomb Hamas into submission proved counter productive. Apart from killing thousands of women and children, which has created a public relations nightmare for Israel, the aerial bombardment created enormous piles of rubble that Hamas has used for cover and concealment while carrying out devastating and costly ambushes of Israeli patrols.
Along with the failure to root out Hamas fighters from their warren of tunnels, Israel also finds itself fighting Hezbollah on along its northern border with Lebanon and Syria. Almost 100,000 Israeli civilians have been forced to flee their settlements near those borders while the Israeli Occupation Force (IOF) and Hezbollah trade mortar and artillery rounds.
And then there is the political chaos in Bibi Netanyahu’s cabinet. Last Saturday Bib tried to hold a press conference with his Minister of Defense and the opposition politician who had joined his war cabinet. They refused to be seen with him.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and war cabinet member Benny Gantz rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to hold a joint press conference with him this evening, according to Hebrew media reports. Netanyahu is set to hold the press conference without them shortly. . . .
Channel 13 news attributes the refusal by Gantz and Gallant to their anger at Netanyahu for preventing the war cabinet from deliberating the issue of “the day after” in Gaza, along with concerns the premier will again make political statements at the upcoming press conference.
The withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, which is likely to be accompanied by scaled-back bombings in Gaza (I hope), is going to widen the gulf between the hard-liners in Bibi’s cabinet and the “moderates”. The hard-liners, e.g. Itamar Bin-Gvir, want to expand the war by invading southern Lebanon. It appears that Gantz and Gallant are starting to realize that Israel can not kill its way to victory. Then there is the growing pressure from the hostage families.
Oh yeah. Almost forgot. Israel’s Supreme Court shot down Netanyahu’s backhanded legislative maneuver to neuter the Court. That’s another loss.
Then there is the Red Sea drama, with little Yemen squaring off against the United States as it shuts down the transit of ships aligned with Israel. Yemen continues to try to board ships that ignore its warnings while firing anti-ship missiles and drones. The U.S. “Armada” — acutally Armada-lite — claims to have shot up some Yemeni boats attempting to board a ship and intercepted some missiles and drones. So far there has been no strike on Yemeni territory. Yemen has closed the Red Sea to ships bound for Israel and this is having a major negative effect on Israel’s economy.
Instead of re-opening the Red Sea, the United States, despite the bravado in press releases, is proving to be rather impotent and has decided that the risk to the Carrier Strike Group is too great:
After months of extra duty at sea providing protection for Israel, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group will be heading home, the Navy announced Monday.
The Ford and its accompanying warships will be replaced by the amphibious assault ship the USS Bataan and its accompanying warships, the USS Mesa Verde and the USS Carter Hall. The three vessels had been in the Red Sea and have been transiting toward the Eastern Mediterranean over the last few days.
Looks like the Pentagon has decided it has less to lose by deploying an amphibious assault ship. That means there will be no more threat of U.S. carrier-based planes attacking targets in Yemen. This is likely to stir up more domestic criticism of Joe Biden and his national security team for failing to act “decisively” to destroy the Yemeni threat. There are many members of Congress who wrongly believe that all the United States has to do is drop a few bombs or launch some cruise missiles and the Yemenis would surrender. Maybe this is an indicator that someone at the Pentagon is awake and realizes that launching attacks on Yemen could open a can of worms we are not prepared to close.